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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Covadonga vs Siero prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Covadonga host Siero in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Covadonga Win — Covadonga to win. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Covadonga 2–1 Siero.
Going into the match, Covadonga had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Siero had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 9 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Covadonga's last 10 and 1 of Siero's last 9; 8 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Covadonga averaged 2.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Siero averaged 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.00 goals from Covadonga and 1.11 from Siero. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 20%, against 66%, 20% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Covadonga (green) and Siero (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Covadonga Win | 66% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.74 |
| Covadonga HT & FT | 46% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| 2-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.