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Torneo Federal A · Argentina
Costa Brava vs Villa Mitre prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Costa Brava host Villa Mitre in the Torneo Federal A (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Costa Brava 1–1 Villa Mitre.
Going into the match, Costa Brava had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Villa Mitre had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Costa Brava's last 10 and 2 of Villa Mitre's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Costa Brava averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Villa Mitre averaged 0.70 scored and 0.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.71 goals from Costa Brava and 0.79 from Villa Mitre. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 33%, against 35%, 34% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Costa Brava (green) and Villa Mitre (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Brava | WWDLW | 1.10 | 0.80 | 50% | 30% |
| Villa Mitre | DLWDD | 1.10 | 0.70 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.