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Serie A · Brazil
Corinthians vs Vitoria prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Corinthians host Vitoria in the Serie A (Brazil) on 19 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Corinthians Win — Corinthians to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Corinthians 1–1 Vitoria.
Going into the match, Corinthians had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 18. Vitoria had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Corinthians's last 10 and 4 of Vitoria's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Corinthians averaged 1.12 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Vitoria averaged 1.06 scored and 1.94 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Corinthians and 1.27 from Vitoria. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 58%, 26% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 37%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Corinthians (green) and Vitoria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | LLLLL | 0.80 | 1.80 | 70% | 60% |
| Vitoria | LWLDW | 1.10 | 1.40 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Vitoria 0–0 Corinthians
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Corinthians Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.