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Segunda División · Chile
Concón National vs Provincial Osorno prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Concón National host Provincial Osorno in the Segunda División (Chile) on 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Concón National to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Concón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno.
Going into the match, Concón National had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Provincial Osorno had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Concón National's last 10 and 5 of Provincial Osorno's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Concón National averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Provincial Osorno averaged 0.57 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Concón National and 1.17 from Provincial Osorno. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 35%, against 43%, 27% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Concón National (green) and Provincial Osorno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concón National | WLWWL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
| Provincial Osorno | LLLDL | 1.10 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Provincial Osorno 1–0 Concón National
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
| Concón National Win | 41% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.