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Primera División · Chile
Concepción vs Union La Calera prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Concepción host Union La Calera in the Primera División (Chile) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Concepción 1–1 Union La Calera.
Going into the match, Concepción had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Union La Calera had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Concepción's last 10 and 4 of Union La Calera's last 10; 1 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Concepción averaged 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Union La Calera averaged 1.07 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.18 goals from Concepción and 0.73 from Union La Calera. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 21%, against 47%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Concepción (green) and Union La Calera (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | LLWWD | 1.20 | 0.60 | 20% | 10% |
| Union La Calera | DDWLL | 0.90 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Apr 2026 · Union La Calera 1–0 Concepción
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Concepción Win | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.