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Serie A · Italy
Como vs AS Roma prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Como host AS Roma in the Serie A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Como 0–0 AS Roma.
Going into the match, Como had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 11. AS Roma had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Como's last 10 and 6 of AS Roma's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Como averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home AS Roma averaged 2.18 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Como and 1.42 from AS Roma. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 35%, against 37%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Como (green) and AS Roma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.