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Segunda División · Chile
Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Colchagua host Provincial Osorno in the Segunda División (Chile) on 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Provincial Osorno to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Colchagua 2–0 Provincial Osorno.
Going into the match, Colchagua had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 10. Provincial Osorno had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 0 of Colchagua's last 10 and 5 of Provincial Osorno's last 10; 1 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Colchagua averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Provincial Osorno averaged 0.67 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.74 goals from Colchagua and 0.82 from Provincial Osorno. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 33%, against 39%, 28% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Colchagua (green) and Provincial Osorno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchagua | LLLDL | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0% | 10% |
| Provincial Osorno | LLDLW | 1.10 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 21 Jun 2026 · Colchagua 0–0 Provincial Osorno
- 18 Apr 2026 · Provincial Osorno 2–2 Colchagua
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Provincial Osorno Win | 33% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.