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Serie D - Girone B · Italy
Club Milano vs Leon prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Club Milano host Leon in the Serie D - Girone B (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.27, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Club Milano 1–2 Leon.
Going into the match, Club Milano had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 8. Leon had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Club Milano's last 9 and 5 of Leon's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Club Milano averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Leon averaged 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Club Milano and 1.21 from Leon. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 41%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Club Milano (green) and Leon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Milano | DLLWL | 1.56 | 0.89 | 33% | 22% |
| Leon | LDDDW | 0.90 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.27 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Leon Win | 38% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.