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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Ciudad de Lucena vs Puente Genil prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ciudad de Lucena host Puente Genil in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Ciudad de Lucena to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ciudad de Lucena 1–0 Puente Genil.
Going into the match, Ciudad de Lucena had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 8. Puente Genil had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 8, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Ciudad de Lucena's last 9 and 4 of Puente Genil's last 8; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ciudad de Lucena averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Puente Genil averaged 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.48 goals from Ciudad de Lucena and 0.71 from Puente Genil. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 17%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ciudad de Lucena (green) and Puente Genil (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Lucena | WLDDW | 1.89 | 0.89 | 44% | 67% |
| Puente Genil | DLLWL | 1.13 | 1.13 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.82 |
| Ciudad de Lucena Win | 48% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Ciudad de Lucena HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.