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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ciudad de Lucena host Don Benito in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Ciudad de Lucena to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito.
Going into the match, Ciudad de Lucena had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Don Benito had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Ciudad de Lucena's last 10 and 4 of Don Benito's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ciudad de Lucena averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Don Benito averaged 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.26 goals from Ciudad de Lucena and 1.27 from Don Benito. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 20%, against 45%, 29% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ciudad de Lucena (green) and Don Benito (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Lucena | WWLDD | 1.80 | 0.80 | 40% | 60% |
| Don Benito | LWDWW | 1.90 | 0.70 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.81 |
| Ciudad de Lucena Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.