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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ciudad de Bolívar host San Telmo in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 San Telmo.
Going into the match, Ciudad de Bolívar had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 11. San Telmo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Ciudad de Bolívar's last 10 and 3 of San Telmo's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ciudad de Bolívar averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home San Telmo averaged 0.62 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from Ciudad de Bolívar and 0.65 from San Telmo. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 19%, against 50%, 30% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ciudad de Bolívar (green) and San Telmo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Bolívar | WWLDL | 0.60 | 1.10 | 30% | 20% |
| San Telmo | WWLWD | 1.00 | 1.30 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · San Telmo 0–1 Ciudad de Bolívar
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Ciudad de Bolívar Win | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.