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Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy
Città di Varese vs Pro Patria prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Città di Varese host Pro Patria in the Coppa Italia Serie D (Italy) on 7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Città di Varese 2–5 Pro Patria.
Going into the match, Città di Varese had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 17. Pro Patria had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Città di Varese's last 10 and 6 of Pro Patria's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Città di Varese averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pro Patria averaged 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Città di Varese and 2.38 from Pro Patria. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 57%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 26%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Città di Varese | LDWDL | 1.50 | 1.70 | 60% | 50% |
| Pro Patria | DLWWW | 1.80 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Pro Patria Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.79 |
| Pro Patria HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.