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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Chisola vs Derthona prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chisola host Derthona in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chisola 4–2 Derthona.
Going into the match, Chisola had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 15. Derthona had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chisola's last 10 and 5 of Derthona's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chisola averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Derthona averaged 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Chisola and 0.96 from Derthona. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 18%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chisola (green) and Derthona (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Chisola Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.