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Primera A · Colombia
Chico vs Atletico Nacional prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chico host Atletico Nacional in the Primera A (Colombia) on 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Atletico Nacional Win — Atletico Nacional to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chico 1–4 Atletico Nacional.
Going into the match, Chico had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Atletico Nacional had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Chico's last 10 and 6 of Atletico Nacional's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chico averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Atletico Nacional averaged 1.62 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.75 goals from Chico and 2.03 from Atletico Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 66%, against 16%, 25% and 59% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chico (green) and Atletico Nacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chico | LDWLL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 30% | 50% |
| Atletico Nacional | WDWDD | 2.10 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Atletico Nacional Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.