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Major League Soccer · USA
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chicago Fire host New York City FC in the Major League Soccer (USA) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC.
Going into the match, Chicago Fire had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. New York City FC had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Chicago Fire's last 10 and 7 of New York City FC's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chicago Fire averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home New York City FC averaged 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.12 from New York City FC. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 53%, 24% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chicago Fire (green) and New York City FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | WWLLD | 1.60 | 1.70 | 80% | 70% |
| New York City FC | DLWLD | 1.10 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Chicago Fire Win | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.