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League Two · England
Chesterfield vs Tranmere prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chesterfield host Tranmere in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chesterfield 4–2 Tranmere.
Going into the match, Chesterfield had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Tranmere had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Chesterfield's last 10 and 5 of Tranmere's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chesterfield averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tranmere averaged 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.50 goals from Chesterfield and 0.97 from Tranmere. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 23%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chesterfield (green) and Tranmere (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | LDWWW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
| Tranmere | DWDLW | 1.30 | 1.00 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Chesterfield 1–1 Tranmere
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Chesterfield Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.