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National League - North · England
Chester vs Bedford Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chester host Bedford Town in the National League - North (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chester 1–0 Bedford Town.
Going into the match, Chester had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Bedford Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chester's last 10 and 8 of Bedford Town's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chester averaged 0.89 goals scored and 0.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Bedford Town averaged 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Chester and 0.72 from Bedford Town. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 26%, against 58%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 92%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | LWWLL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
| Bedford Town | WDDWL | 1.70 | 1.30 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Chester Win | 58% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.