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FA Cup · England
Chesham United vs Real Bedford prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chesham United host Real Bedford in the FA Cup (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chesham United 4–3 Real Bedford.
Going into the match, Chesham United had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 18. Real Bedford had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 29 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chesham United's last 10 and 8 of Real Bedford's last 10; 8 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chesham United averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Real Bedford averaged 2.75 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.67 goals from Chesham United and 3.65 from Real Bedford. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 57%, against 41%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 91%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chesham United (green) and Real Bedford (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham United | LWWLL | 2.30 | 1.80 | 60% | 80% |
| Real Bedford | WLWWW | 2.90 | 1.30 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.26 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.66 |
| Chesham United Win | 41% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.