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National League - South · England
Chesham United vs Chelmsford City prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chesham United host Chelmsford City in the National League - South (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City.
Going into the match, Chesham United had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 18. Chelmsford City had won 3, drawn 7 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chesham United's last 10 and 5 of Chelmsford City's last 10; 8 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chesham United averaged 2.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Chelmsford City averaged 1.73 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Chesham United and 1.99 from Chelmsford City. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 61%, against 37%, 26% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham United | WLWWL | 2.50 | 1.80 | 60% | 80% |
| Chelmsford City | WDWDD | 1.10 | 0.70 | 50% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Chesham United 0–2 Chelmsford City
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.