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Pro Cup · Bulgaria
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cherno More Varna host Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Pro Cup (Bulgaria) on 21 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Cherno More Varna to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Going into the match, Cherno More Varna had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 19. Lokomotiv Plovdiv had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Cherno More Varna's last 10 and 3 of Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 10; 6 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cherno More Varna averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Lokomotiv Plovdiv averaged 0.80 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from Cherno More Varna and 1.07 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 39%, against 44%, 28% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cherno More Varna (green) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | WLLWD | 1.20 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | WDWDL | 0.80 | 1.10 | 30% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Sep 2026 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More Varna
- 12 May 2026 · Cherno More Varna 2–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 26 Apr 2026 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More Varna
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Cherno More Varna Win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.