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First League · Bulgaria
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cherno More Varna host Levski Sofia in the First League (Bulgaria) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Levski Sofia Win — Levski Sofia to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia.
Going into the match, Cherno More Varna had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 21. Levski Sofia had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Cherno More Varna's last 10 and 3 of Levski Sofia's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cherno More Varna averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Levski Sofia averaged 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.50 goals from Cherno More Varna and 1.71 from Levski Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 10%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 66%, against 16%, 27% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cherno More Varna (green) and Levski Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | LWDDL | 1.10 | 2.10 | 60% | 60% |
| Levski Sofia | LDLWW | 1.50 | 1.10 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Levski Sofia Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.