Home › League stats › Premier League › Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Premier League · England
Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chelsea host Bournemouth in the Premier League (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth.
Going into the match, Chelsea had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 19. Bournemouth had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Chelsea's last 10 and 8 of Bournemouth's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chelsea averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Bournemouth averaged 1.90 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.14 goals from Chelsea and 1.94 from Bournemouth. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 35%, against 56%, 22% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chelsea (green) and Bournemouth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | LDWLW | 2.70 | 1.90 | 70% | 90% |
| Bournemouth | LWDWD | 2.50 | 1.40 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Chelsea Win | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.