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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Chaves vs Vizela prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chaves host Vizela in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 23 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Chaves had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Vizela had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chaves's last 10 and 1 of Vizela's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chaves averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Vizela averaged 0.89 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Chaves and 0.95 from Vizela. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 27%, against 36%, 28% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chaves (green) and Vizela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jul 2026 · Vizela 1–0 Chaves
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.