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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Chaves vs Os Marialvas prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chaves host Os Marialvas in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chaves 2–1 Os Marialvas.
Going into the match, Chaves had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Os Marialvas had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Chaves's last 10 and 1 of Os Marialvas's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chaves averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Os Marialvas averaged 1.50 scored and 0.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Chaves and 1.47 from Os Marialvas. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 49%, against 69%, 19% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chaves (green) and Os Marialvas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | DLLWW | 0.90 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Os Marialvas | DWWWW | 1.30 | 0.30 | 10% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Chaves Win | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Chaves HT & FT | 47% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.