Home › League stats › Serie A › Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chapecoense-sc host Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A (Brazil) on 12 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense.
Going into the match, Chapecoense-sc had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 19. Atletico Paranaense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Chapecoense-sc's last 10 and 7 of Atletico Paranaense's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chapecoense-sc averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Atletico Paranaense averaged 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Chapecoense-sc and 1.70 from Atletico Paranaense. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 48%, against 25%, 28% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chapecoense-sc (green) and Atletico Paranaense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | LDDLW | 1.10 | 1.90 | 70% | 60% |
| Atletico Paranaense | DWDLD | 1.90 | 1.90 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.