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K3 League · South Korea
Changwon City vs Yangpyeong prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Changwon City host Yangpyeong in the K3 League (South Korea) on 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Changwon City to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Changwon City 2–1 Yangpyeong.
Going into the match, Changwon City had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 20. Yangpyeong had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Changwon City's last 10 and 9 of Yangpyeong's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Changwon City averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Yangpyeong averaged 0.90 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Changwon City and 1.48 from Yangpyeong. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 30%, against 48%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Changwon City (green) and Yangpyeong (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changwon City | LLLLD | 1.40 | 2.00 | 80% | 60% |
| Yangpyeong | LLLDL | 2.00 | 2.60 | 90% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Yangpyeong 1–0 Changwon City
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| Changwon City Win | 48% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Changwon City HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.