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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chacarita Juniors host Patronato in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Chacarita Juniors to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Patronato.
Going into the match, Chacarita Juniors had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Patronato had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Chacarita Juniors's last 10 and 4 of Patronato's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chacarita Juniors averaged 1.09 goals scored and 0.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Patronato averaged 0.64 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Chacarita Juniors and 0.72 from Patronato. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 25%, against 47%, 31% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chacarita Juniors (green) and Patronato (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chacarita Juniors | LWLLL | 0.70 | 1.10 | 30% | 40% |
| Patronato | WDDDL | 1.40 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Patronato 2–0 Chacarita Juniors
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Chacarita Juniors Win | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.