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Liga MX · Mexico
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CF Pachuca host Necaxa in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 11 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa.
Going into the match, CF Pachuca had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Necaxa had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CF Pachuca's last 10 and 8 of Necaxa's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CF Pachuca averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Necaxa averaged 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from CF Pachuca and 1.04 from Necaxa. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 21%, against 56%, 26% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CF Pachuca (green) and Necaxa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | LDWWD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Necaxa | LLLDL | 1.00 | 2.10 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.