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Primera División · Uruguay
Cerro vs Wanderers prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cerro host Wanderers in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cerro 0–2 Wanderers.
Going into the match, Cerro had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 14. Wanderers had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Cerro's last 10 and 8 of Wanderers's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cerro averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Wanderers averaged 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.36 goals from Cerro and 1.41 from Wanderers. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cerro (green) and Wanderers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Sep 2026 · Wanderers 1–1 Cerro
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Wanderers Win | 39% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.