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Emperor Cup · Japan
Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cerezo Osaka host Kagoshima United in the Emperor Cup (Japan) on 7 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cerezo Osaka 2–0 Kagoshima United.
Going into the match, Cerezo Osaka had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Kagoshima United had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Cerezo Osaka's last 10 and 7 of Kagoshima United's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cerezo Osaka averaged 2.08 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Kagoshima United averaged 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.05 goals from Cerezo Osaka and 1.04 from Kagoshima United. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 18%, against 59%, 22% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cerezo Osaka (green) and Kagoshima United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | WDLDW | 1.20 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
| Kagoshima United | WDWWW | 2.10 | 1.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Cerezo Osaka Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.