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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
Cenicero vs San Marcial prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cenicero host San Marcial in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cenicero 1–3 San Marcial.
Going into the match, Cenicero had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 7. San Marcial had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Cenicero's last 5 and 5 of San Marcial's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cenicero averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home San Marcial averaged 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Cenicero and 1.37 from San Marcial. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 44%, against 43%, 27% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cenicero (green) and San Marcial (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cenicero | LLWDD | 1.20 | 1.40 | 80% | 60% |
| San Marcial | DLDDW | 1.00 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Cenicero Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.