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Segunda División · Spain
Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Celta de Vigo II host Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II.
Going into the match, Celta de Vigo II had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Real Sociedad II had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Celta de Vigo II's last 10 and 7 of Real Sociedad II's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Celta de Vigo II averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Real Sociedad II averaged 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.33 goals from Celta de Vigo II and 1.33 from Real Sociedad II. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 20%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo II | LDLLW | 1.20 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
| Real Sociedad II | LWLLL | 1.60 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.