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1. SNL · Slovenia
Celje vs Aluminij prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Celje host Aluminij in the 1. SNL (Slovenia) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Celje 1–0 Aluminij.
Going into the match, Celje had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Aluminij had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Celje's last 10 and 5 of Aluminij's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Celje averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Aluminij averaged 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Celje and 0.74 from Aluminij. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 19%, against 59%, 23% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 36%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Celje (green) and Aluminij (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Sep 2026 · Aluminij 0–2 Celje
- 26 Apr 2026 · Celje 5–0 Aluminij
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Celje Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 55% | 1.69 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.