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Premijer Liga · Bosnia
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Čelik host FK Sarajevo in the Premijer Liga (Bosnia) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — FK Sarajevo to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Čelik 0–0 FK Sarajevo.
Going into the match, Čelik had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. FK Sarajevo had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Čelik's last 10 and 2 of FK Sarajevo's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Čelik averaged 2.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home FK Sarajevo averaged 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Čelik and 0.95 from FK Sarajevo. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 29%, against 25%, 28% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Čelik (green) and FK Sarajevo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | DWLDW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| FK Sarajevo | WWLLW | 1.00 | 0.70 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| FK Sarajevo Win | 45% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| FK Sarajevo HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.