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Serie B · Brazil
Ceara vs Criciuma prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ceara host Criciuma in the Serie B (Brazil) on 8 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ceara 1–0 Criciuma.
Going into the match, Ceara had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Criciuma had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ceara's last 10 and 2 of Criciuma's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ceara averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Criciuma averaged 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.02 goals from Ceara and 0.91 from Criciuma. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 30%, against 40%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ceara (green) and Criciuma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Jun 2026 · Criciuma 1–1 Ceara
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Ceara Win | 40% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.