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CONCACAF Central American Cup · International
CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CD Motagua host LD Alajuelense in the CONCACAF Central American Cup (International) on 23 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — LD Alajuelense to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, CD Motagua had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 5. LD Alajuelense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of CD Motagua's last 10 and 8 of LD Alajuelense's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CD Motagua averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 14 matches; away from home LD Alajuelense averaged 1.64 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from CD Motagua and 0.96 from LD Alajuelense. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 19%, against 38%, 32% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CD Motagua (green) and LD Alajuelense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Motagua | WWLDW | 1.50 | 0.50 | 40% | 40% |
| LD Alajuelense | WDDWW | 2.00 | 1.40 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.75 |
| 1-1 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.