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Liga Nacional · Honduras
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CD Motagua host Atlético Choloma in the Liga Nacional (Honduras) on 10 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CD Motagua 2–1 Atlético Choloma.
Going into the match, CD Motagua had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Atlético Choloma had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of CD Motagua's last 10 and 3 of Atlético Choloma's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CD Motagua averaged 1.69 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Atlético Choloma averaged 1.29 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.73 goals from CD Motagua and 0.57 from Atlético Choloma. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 11%, against 73%, 16% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CD Motagua (green) and Atlético Choloma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Motagua | LDWWD | 1.30 | 0.80 | 50% | 40% |
| Atlético Choloma | WLDLW | 0.80 | 1.30 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Apr 2026 · CD Motagua 5–1 Atlético Choloma
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.27 |
| CD Motagua Win | 69% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.59 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| CD Motagua HT & FT | 46% | 2.00 |
| 2-1 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.