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CONCACAF Central American Cup · International
CD Marathon vs Alianza prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CD Marathon host Alianza in the CONCACAF Central American Cup (International) on 21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is CD Marathon Win — CD Marathon to win. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza.
Going into the match, CD Marathon had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 11. Alianza had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CD Marathon's last 10 and 7 of Alianza's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CD Marathon averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Alianza averaged 0.93 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from CD Marathon and 0.69 from Alianza. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 11%, against 59%, 24% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CD Marathon (green) and Alianza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathon | WDLLW | 1.90 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
| Alianza | DDLDW | 1.30 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Aug 2026 · CD Marathon 0–1 Alianza
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| CD Marathon Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| CD Marathon HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.