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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caudal host Sporting Gijón II in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Caudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II.
Going into the match, Caudal had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Sporting Gijón II had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Caudal's last 10 and 7 of Sporting Gijón II's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caudal averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Sporting Gijón II averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Caudal and 0.93 from Sporting Gijón II. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 32%, against 40%, 28% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caudal (green) and Sporting Gijón II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caudal | DWLWD | 1.70 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Sporting Gijón II | DWWWW | 1.80 | 1.10 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Sporting Gijón II 0–0 Caudal
- 17 May 2026 · Caudal 0–0 Sporting Gijón II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.43 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Caudal Win | 39% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.