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Serie B · Italy
Catanzaro vs Mantova prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Catanzaro host Mantova in the Serie B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova.
Going into the match, Catanzaro had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Mantova had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Catanzaro's last 10 and 7 of Mantova's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Catanzaro averaged 2.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Mantova averaged 1.88 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Catanzaro and 1.98 from Mantova. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 46%, against 39%, 30% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Catanzaro (green) and Mantova (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.