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Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Catania vs Crotone prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Catania host Crotone in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Catania 2–1 Crotone.
Going into the match, Catania had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Crotone had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Catania's last 10 and 6 of Crotone's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Catania averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Crotone averaged 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.99 goals from Catania and 1.04 from Crotone. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 18%, against 58%, 25% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Catania (green) and Crotone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Crotone 2–0 Catania
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Catania Win | 58% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.