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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Castellonense vs Real Murcia II prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Castellonense host Real Murcia II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals — fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half. It was published at odds of 1.34, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Castellonense 3–0 Real Murcia II.
Going into the match, Castellonense had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Real Murcia II had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Castellonense's last 9 and 7 of Real Murcia II's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Castellonense averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Real Murcia II averaged 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.24 goals from Castellonense and 0.83 from Real Murcia II. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 12%, against 43%, 28% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Castellonense (green) and Real Murcia II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellonense | LWWWL | 1.33 | 1.33 | 56% | 56% |
| Real Murcia II | WLLLD | 1.30 | 1.30 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Castellonense Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Castellonense HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.