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Segunda División · Spain
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Castellón host AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Castellón Win — Castellón to win. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Castellón 1–1 AD Ceuta FC.
Going into the match, Castellón had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 8. AD Ceuta FC had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Castellón's last 10 and 7 of AD Ceuta FC's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Castellón averaged 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AD Ceuta FC averaged 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.10 goals from Castellón and 0.70 from AD Ceuta FC. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 10%, against 77%, 15% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Castellón (green) and AD Ceuta FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | WWWWW | 1.50 | 0.80 | 30% | 50% |
| AD Ceuta FC | WDLLL | 1.20 | 2.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Castellón Win | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Castellón 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Castellón HT & FT | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| 2-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.