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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Castellón II vs Lorca Deportiva prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Castellón II host Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.68, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Castellón II 2–1 Lorca Deportiva.
Going into the match, Castellón II had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. Lorca Deportiva had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 9, with 4 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Castellón II's last 10 and 2 of Lorca Deportiva's last 9; 7 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Castellón II averaged 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Lorca Deportiva averaged 0.00 scored and 1.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Castellón II and 0.99 from Lorca Deportiva. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 24%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Castellón II (green) and Lorca Deportiva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón II | WWWLW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 60% | 70% |
| Lorca Deportiva | WDLDL | 0.44 | 1.00 | 22% | 11% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.41 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Castellón II Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Castellón II HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.