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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
Casalarreina vs Alfaro prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Casalarreina host Alfaro in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. No bookmaker price was available for this market when the prediction was published, so no percentage is shown.
Final score: Casalarreina 0–1 Alfaro.
Going into the match, Casalarreina had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Alfaro had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Casalarreina's last 5 and 7 of Alfaro's last 9; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Casalarreina averaged 0.50 goals scored and 4.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Alfaro averaged 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Casalarreina and 1.68 from Alfaro. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 57%. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Casalarreina (green) and Alfaro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casalarreina | LLLLW | 0.80 | 2.40 | 60% | 80% |
| Alfaro | WWLWD | 1.33 | 1.56 | 78% | 78% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.