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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction and preview
30 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Casa Pia host Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 30 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Casa Pia had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 17. Sporting CP had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Casa Pia's last 10 and 7 of Sporting CP's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Casa Pia averaged 0.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Sporting CP averaged 1.89 scored and 0.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.64 goals from Casa Pia and 2.70 from Sporting CP. From that it rates a home win at 6%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 80%, against 10%, 19% and 71% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Casa Pia (green) and Sporting CP (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | WWLWL | 0.60 | 1.70 | 20% | 30% |
| Sporting CP | WLLWW | 2.20 | 1.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Sporting CP Win | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.80 |
| Sporting CP HT & FT | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.