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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Casa Pia host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara.
Going into the match, Casa Pia had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 24. Santa Clara had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Casa Pia's last 10 and 5 of Santa Clara's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Casa Pia averaged 0.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Santa Clara averaged 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.46 goals from Casa Pia and 1.90 from Santa Clara. From that it rates a home win at 7%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 72%, against 21%, 29% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Casa Pia (green) and Santa Clara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | WLDLL | 0.70 | 2.40 | 40% | 50% |
| Santa Clara | DWWDW | 1.70 | 0.60 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Casa Pia 0–0 Santa Clara
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Santa Clara Win | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.