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Premier League · Wales
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cardiff MET host Trefelin in the Premier League (Wales) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cardiff MET 1–3 Trefelin.
Going into the match, Cardiff MET had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Trefelin had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Cardiff MET's last 10 and 5 of Trefelin's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cardiff MET averaged 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Trefelin averaged 1.11 scored and 3.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.85 goals from Cardiff MET and 0.61 from Trefelin. From that it rates a home win at 83%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 5%, against 70%, 18% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cardiff MET (green) and Trefelin (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | WWDLD | 1.50 | 1.20 | 30% | 50% |
| Trefelin | LLDLL | 0.50 | 2.40 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Cardiff MET Win | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Cardiff MET 1st Half Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| Cardiff MET HT & FT | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.