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FAW Championship · Wales
Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cardiff Draconians host Newport City in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cardiff Draconians 1–1 Newport City.
Going into the match, Cardiff Draconians had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 8 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Newport City had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 9, with 9 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Cardiff Draconians's last 8 and 2 of Newport City's last 9; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cardiff Draconians averaged 2.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Newport City averaged 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Cardiff Draconians and 1.47 from Newport City. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 33%, 25% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cardiff Draconians (green) and Newport City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | LWWLD | 1.75 | 1.75 | 75% | 75% |
| Newport City | DLLWL | 1.00 | 1.78 | 22% | 56% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Newport City Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Newport City HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.