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FAW Championship · Wales
Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cardiff Draconians host Carmarthen Town in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.41, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cardiff Draconians 2–2 Carmarthen Town.
Going into the match, Cardiff Draconians had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 15. Carmarthen Town had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Cardiff Draconians's last 9 and 10 of Carmarthen Town's last 10; 6 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cardiff Draconians averaged 2.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Carmarthen Town averaged 1.75 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.40 goals from Cardiff Draconians and 2.04 from Carmarthen Town. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 33%, against 35%, 24% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cardiff Draconians (green) and Carmarthen Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | DLWWL | 1.67 | 1.67 | 78% | 67% |
| Carmarthen Town | LWDLD | 2.20 | 2.20 | 100% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.21 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.41 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.59 |
| Carmarthen Town Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.